Continuing on in this labour of love, setting my face as a flint .....
A Deeper Dive pdf Page 33 Key Findings after A Deeper DiveSummarises the document’s deeper findings: chronic deficits, poor commercial performance, cash shortfalls, reliance on property sales, and governance weaknesses.
Argues that losses in coffee shops and school were not temporary but recurring, requiring repeated support from reserves and disposals.
The page also points to operational inefficiencies in coffee shops and the school, including staffing and cost-control issues.
Page 34 Section 6.1 - Funding SourcesThe combined analysis shows church flow as positive overall, but coffee shops and school as significant net drains over the full period.
"Property Activity" Cash In Flows are represented by the Dark Brown coloured bars pointing
upwards above the £0 line.
"Property Activity" Outflows are represented by the Dark Brown coloured bars pointing
downwards below the £0 line.
The page reinforces the document’s final thesis: operational deficits were masked by capital and property transactions.
Year-by-year deficit table confirms persistent negative cash flows. 2022–2023 show particularly large deficits.
Notice that the Dark Brown
upward bar of 2014 (Property Sales) is more than used up by the Orange
downward bars of 2022 and 2023.
You could also equate that the combined value of earlier Orange
downward bars of 2017 through 2021 were "fixed" by the Dark Brown
upward bar of 2022 (Property Sales).
Brings together the overall flow analysis showing church flow positive, shop/school flow negative, and property inflows significant.Page 35 Section 6.2 – Coffee Shops and School DeficitsShows the ongoing deterioration of shop and school flows in later years.
The page reinforces the argument that the deficits are structural and cumulative rather than one-off.
The march of the downward pointing orange bars is relentless from 2017 onwards.
This page separates out the cost of IT purchases and shows how they were funded by 3 year HP Loans.
It is interesting to see that in 2 of the years when IT was purchased 2013 and 2016 (Dark purple Bars pointing downwards), there are almost equal and opposite Dark Orange Bars pointing upwards. Dark Orange represents School Cash Flow. It is probably a reasonable assumption that membership was asked to give, and did give, to fund the IT replacement programme in both those years. The graph also shows that in both those years there is also a Mid-Blue upward bar representing HP Loan procured to fund the IT replacements.
The small print sentence at the bottom of the page reminds the reader again that in 2013 the entire Maintenance spend of Church, School and Coffee Shops was transformed into Forward Vision Spend. Only in that one year of 2013.A Further Look at the bottom of page 27 states that 2013 was an expensive year!! So that's OK. It was a year of School Trip to Rwanda and £21k of unpaid School Fees were written off out of the accounts as uncollectable.
Page 36 Section 6.3 - Sources of Funding as multi-colour scarf This page is a repeat of Page 34 Section 6.1 but has coloured the Property Activity into distinct items, where page 34 simply coloured the Property Activity as Dark Brown. ie if you look at Page 34 and find a Dark Brown Bar, then you move to Page 36, you will see that Dark Brown Bar divided up into the specific item of Activity that was occurring.
The small grid of numbers underneath equates the Cash In Flow of FIDRA, Gorebridge and Pudsey Properties with the Coffee Shops and School Cash Out Flow explosions (or implosions!) of 2022 and 2023. Page 37 Section 7.1 - Coffee Shops Deficit FundingCoffee shop performance deteriorates over time.
In the upper, horizontally spread graph, the Orange bars represent Coffee Shop Losses being covered by Church Unrestricted Funds. They begins their relentless one directional march from 2017 onwards.
Page 37 Section 7.2 - Coffee Shops Cost of Goods Sold (Stock Purchases)This becomes technical.
But anyone should be able to see that the golden income line on the small graph plummets and the blue stock purchases line takes off upwards at the same time.
How can this be? How can you buy more and take in less income? This graph is nothing to do with numbers of staff and whether they were volunteers or not. It is purely comparing Coffee Shop Sales Income and Stock Purchases.
So I repeat, How can you buy more and take in less income? Something very odd here.Page 38 Section 7.3 - Coffee Shops Inefficient Quantity of StaffAgain, a quite technical page. Bottom line: Wage costs in coffee shops far exceed sustainable benchmarks.
Look at the wobbly golden income line between 2008 and 2019. it is more on a downwards trajectory than up. Not dramatic at this point, but definitely not an upward trend. Then look at the navy staff costs line. That's volunteers and paid staff. (I've no inside knowledge whether volunteers received any small payment or not. Please forbid there were undisclosed cash in hand payments that missed the PAYE records). Looking between 2008 and 2016, there's not a lot of movement in the Navy line. And the Industry Average for wages is increasing, so that gives explanation for increasing paid wages.
But from 2016, the Navy line starts to rise in an obvious manner, then takes off in 2019.
Page 38 Section 7.4 - Coffee Shops Deficit compared to UK AverageIndustry average is quoted as expected to be 10% surplus. The Coffee Shops only made a surplus in 1 year, 2008.
By 2023, total Coffee Shop costs exceeded £1.50 for every £1 of sales revenue generated.
Page 39 Section 8.1 - School Deficit FundingSchool costs consistently exceed fee income.
In the upper, horizontally spread graph, the Dark Purple bars represent School Fees. The other 2 colours are School Spend in excess of School Fees.
With exception of 2 years, always spending more than getting in from Fees.
The Orange bars represent the School Losses being covered by Church Unrestricted Funds. They exist in all years except 2, 2012 and 2016.
The Dark Purple bars show a significant shortening in height in 2022 and 2023. School Fees have dropped from the combined average of 85% to covering 65% of Total School Costs in those 2 years.
Page 39 Section 8.2 - School Employment Costs to School Fees ratioStaff costs disproportionately high vs UK norms (85% of fees).
The smaller line graph on Page 39 compares the ratio of School Employment Costs to School Fees between the UK Independent Schools Sector (purple line) and Cedars School (of Excellence!!) (mid-blue coloured jaggy line).
The UK Independent Schools Average was to spend £60-£70 on Staff Costs out of every £100 paid in School Fees.
Cedars spent an average of £85 out of every £100 paid in School Fees.
And to complete Page 39 Section 8.2, there were also mandatory Pension levy increases in 2012, 2016 and 2019 which certainly would have added to cost pressures.
Is there any evidence of board response to cost imbalance?Page 40 Concluding Key FindingsThis page lists 7 Concluding Key Findings:
These are listed as
[*] Governance Failures
[*] Misuse of Funds (!!!)
[*] Related Party Concerns
[*] Financial Transparency Concerns
[*] Property Sales to Cover Losses
[*] Operational Inefficiencies
[*] Ongoing Governance Risks
That's quite a set of concluding findings!!